TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the Northeast Asian market varies as South Korea and Taiwan are expected to post revenue surges of 108% and 149% compared with 2019, with 1.9 million and 1mn tourists, respectively.
China, which is typically the largest source market, is forecast for revenue to reach 65% of the level in 2019, tallying B348 billion for 2024, reports the Bangkok Post. Likewise, Japan is expected to post 60% of the 2019 level at B56bn, with Hong Kong at 88% with B38bn.
These three markets mark the lowest revenue recoveries for Northeast Asia, estimated at 74% of the 2019 level for 2024.
The most impressive surge post-pandemic is expected for the Middle East at 166% of the 2019 level, generating B95bn, thanks to the resumption of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia, paving the way for growth of 634% the past five years.
The European market’s revenue growth is predicted to tally 112% of the 2019 level, around B500bn, led by Eastern Europe at 143%. In terms of revenue contribution, Russia remains the leader in this region with B125bn.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, the trend for the Northeast Asian market looks slightly better as revenue might rise to 76% of the pre-pandemic level.
Travellers from Northeast Asia still generate a significant volume with 2.89mn arrivals predicted in the final quarter, following Southeast Asia, which is forecast to have 3mn arrivals in this period.
Ms Thapanee said foreign arrivals in the fourth quarter are expected to total 9mn, up 22% year-on-year, with revenue projected at B537bn, a gain of 33%.
She said forward bookings for hotel rooms during this period are robust, increasing 33% year-on-year, with the average length of stay ranging from 5 to 20 nights.
Seat capacity of inbound flights in the fourth quarter was confirmed at 12 million, with 20 new routes being added, said Ms Thapanee.
Available seats are 15% lower than pre-pandemic levels, but increased by 18% year-on-year.
She said another crucial factor to watch is intense competition from other countries, which is expected to affect Southeast Asian markets in particular.
For instance, Vietnam recently restored closer economic ties with China and South Korea, encouraging a stronger flow of tourists between these nations, while Vietnamese arrivals to Thailand declined by 4% in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, the consistently weak yen would not only entice Thai tourists, but also affluent travellers from Southeast Asia who prefer luxury trips, said Ms Thapanee.