Sheldon Hee, regional vice-president for Asia-Pacific at IATA, said it will take several months for the energy supply chain to normalise and have an impact on the aviation sector, reports the Bangkok Post.
After the war between the US and Iran started in February, jet fuel prices more than doubled. In recent months, the average jet fuel price was roughly 60-80% higher year-on-year.
Though the jet fuel price has fallen from its peak of US$220 per barrel to less than $150-160, the decrease was not as sudden as for crude oil, said Mr Hee.
Jet fuel is produced from crude oil, and even if crude oil starts to flow through refineries again, a lead time is needed to return jet fuel production to previous levels and distribute it to airports and airlines.
In addition, it is unclear whether increased fuel surcharges and airfares could absorb rising expenses from spiking jet fuel prices in recent months, which means airfares might not drop quickly, he said.
Since the conflict began, airlines trimmed their schedules to mitigate the cost impact, and those streamlined operations could continue for the rest of the summer season, said Mr Hee.
IATA is maintaining its forecast of 2.1% net profit margin for Asia-Pacific this year, which is on par with the global margin of 2%.
The region is heavily reliant on crude oil imports from the Middle East, and the lack of supplies can pressure refineries and create jet fuel shortages, hiking jet fuel prices in this region more than others, he said.
IATA expects regional passenger demand growth of 5.1%, exceeding the global average of 2.1%.
Some Asia-Pacific carriers have benefited from shifting traffic flows out of Middle East hubs, particularly to Europe-Asia routes.
Mr Hee said these benefits would likely be temporary rather than permanent, but the momentum could continue for a while.
Structurally, once the Middle East traffic returns to a certain level of normality as travel demand is restored, those hubs will start to regain traffic from Asia-Pacific, he said.
Over the longer run, travel demand in Asia-Pacific remains strong, with 3.5% annual growth projected across two decades, according to IATA.