The survey of 11,700 respondents nationwide took place between Jan 19 and 25. It was conducted under the supervision of the Council of Rajabhat University Presidents of Thailand. The results were announced yesterday (Jan 29) at Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University, reports the Bangkok Post.
Asked who they favoured to be prime minister 39.2% of respondents chose Mr Natthaphong, followed by Yodchanan Wongsawat (Pheu Thai) at 15.9% and Anutin Charnvirakul (Bhumjaithai) at 15.2%. Democrat Party leader Abhisit was the choice of 9.1%.
Other preferences included Pirapan Salirathavibhaga (United Thai Nation) at 3.3% and Thammanat Prompow (Klatham) at 2.3%, while 12.9% expressed support for other candidates.
Among the top three prime ministerial candidates, Mr Natthaphong saw his support rise by 6.7 percentage points compared with the last Rajabhat Poll survey conducted between Dec 22 and 29. Anutin’s support fell by 9.2 points and Mr Yodchanan gained 7.5 points.
In voting intentions for party-list MPs, the People’s Party led with 38.8%, little changed from the previous survey. But Pheu Thai gained 5.4 percentage points to move up to 17.9%, and Bhumjaithai fell into third place at 15.6%, down 5.7 points.
While most opinion surveys conducted in Thailand reflect public attitudes towards national parties and their leaders, actual voter behaviour at the constituency level is harder to measure.
Most of the forecasts by academics and other experts familiar with constituency trends have Bhumjaithai finishing first with about 150 out of 500 seats, based on its strength at the local level.
They see the People’s Party slipping from 141 seats in the last election to around 100 to 120 seats. Pheu Thai is the hardest to predict, with estimates ranging anywhere from 45 to 120 seats.
However, the Rajabhat Poll did ask whether voters would choose constituency and party-list MPs from the same party, and 71.6% said they would. (Story continues below)
Other findings
The poll highlighted several other key findings:
Overall, Thai voters were making electoral decisions based more on policy than on individual candidates. Economic policies related to livelihoods and income ranked as the most important factor, cited by 52.9% of respondents, reflecting concerns over the cost of living and household economic security.
Political readiness among the public was relatively high, with 70.9% of respondents able to recall the candidate number and party they intend to vote for, suggesting strong political awareness and continuous engagement with political news.
The Rajabhat Poll concluded that Thai politics is undergoing a transition towards “policy-oriented and outcome-based politics”. Political parties that can design policies addressing economic challenges, deliver stability and propose concrete structural reforms are likely to earn sustained public trust over the long term, the pollsters said.
Mr Natthaphong wrote on his Facebook page on Thursday that people could place their trust in the People’s Party if it is given the mandate to form a government.
“We are ready to translate votes into the formation of a government and deliver a tangible change,” he said.