“Thailand’s tourism sector will definitely be hit by this new storm of events,” Sanga Ruangwattanakul, president of the Khao San Road Business Association, told the Bangkok Post. “Tourism arrivals this year could dip even more severely than last year.”
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) set a target of 11.6mn arrivals from long-haul markets this year, with total arrivals of 36.7mn. Long-haul arrivals set a record high of 10.8mn in 2025.
The US-Israel attack on Iran and Iran’s retaliation against a broad swath of Gulf countries prompted airspace closures and thousands of flight cancellations since Feb 28.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has also triggered fears of rising energy prices.
Mr Sanga said these events hamper global tourism, as higher oil prices lead to rising inflation and airfares. Airspace closures and flight disruptions also contribute to soaring travel costs due to limited supply.
He said in the medium to long term, tourists are likely to opt for destinations closer to home or within their region rather than long-haul travel.
If the tension is prolonged, Thailand’s tourism would be affected in the second and third quarters, including during the Songkran holiday, which usually welcomes a large number of European tourists, said Mr Sanga.
Roughly 80% of Khao San visitors are European tourists, while the remainder are from Asia.
Morrakot Kuldilok, president of the eastern chapter of the Thai Hotels Association, said most guests from long-haul destinations decided to postpone their trips rather than cancel their bookings in Pattaya.
As the end of the high season draws near, she said the conflict in the Middle East has not had a significant impact on Pattaya as Indian, Chinese and Russian markets are able to visit Thailand via direct flights.
Ms Morrakot said tourism operators are more concerned about the long-term impact, particularly on surging operating costs due to electricity bills, oil and food prices.
Foreign tourists, particularly those from long-haul markets, might refrain from visiting Thailand during the next high season, starting in the fourth quarter, if they are affected by the sluggish economy, she said. Long-haul travellers account for 40% of visitors to Pattaya during the high season, and 20% during low season.
Ms Morrakot said Thailand should quickly diversify to other markets, such as China, which is rebounding.
Fewer European tourists could affect average expenditure as they usually stay for longer periods than short-haul markets, she said.
TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the authority is employing a new strategy to mitigate the impact of the Gulf war. In the short term, the TAT wants to encourage more domestic trips, persuading locals to forgo overseas travel, she said.
In the long term, Thailand seeks to develop itself as an aviation hub by increasing direct flights to the country, according to the TAT. The country could also expand its medical tourism sector by focusing on foreign tourists seeking an escape from conflicts in the Gulf region.