Speaking at a seminar on tariffs hosted by the Stock Exchange of Thailand on Wednesday (Jan 28), Mr Somkiat said a TDRI study found the impact of US tariffs on Southeast Asia and on Thailand in particular has not been especially severe.
Asean’s exports, including those from Thailand, to the US increased last year, reports the Bangkok Post.
This rise was not solely due to front-loading, or rushed shipments ahead of tariff changes, he said. Even after the tariffs were imposed, exports continued to grow.
From August to November last year, Thai exports to the US expanded by as much as 30%, with growth across multiple product categories in line with market demand, such as computers and computer parts, which the US imported in large volumes for data centre construction.
“The impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has not been particularly bad. In terms of direct effects, it can almost be ignored,” said Mr Somkiat.
“The tariff rates imposed on Thailand are not significantly different from those applied to other countries, and Thailand even has a slight advantage compared with Vietnam.”
He said when Thailand’s average US tariff rate of 19% is weighted against certain products ‒ such as hard disk drives, which face a 0% US tariff ‒ the effective tariff rate for Thailand declined from 19% to 16.5% as of August 2025.
However, after Trump introduced specific tariffs on some sectors, such as aluminium and steel, Thailand’s overall effective tariff rate increased to 17.6%, though this was still not considered severe.
According to Mr Somkiat, the direct impact of US tariffs on Thailand is estimated to result in a GDP reduction of 0.3 percentage points.
However, this impact is spread out over multiple years. For example, if the full effect materialises over three years, the negative impact would be 0.1 percentage points GDP dip per year, which does not constitute a major economic setback, he said.
Mr Somkiat said the more damaging factor for Thailand is the influx of Chinese goods into the domestic market, which was a problem before tariffs were introduced.
TDRI conducted simulations showing if Thai products are unable to compete in both global and domestic markets due to low-priced Chinese imports, the impact on Thai GDP could reach 0.8–0.9 percentage points.
He also warned Thailand must monitor transshipment, or the falsification of country-of-origin claims for goods exported to the US.
Thailand must ensure the US does not view it as a transit base for Chinese goods destined for the American market, said Mr Somkiat.
He noted Trump’s tariff policies should serve as a turning point for Thailand, sparking efforts to finalise a free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union and to pursue membership in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Without adaptation, such as amending laws that pose structural obstacles, Thailand’s economy will be unable to recover, said Mr Somkiat.
“When the rules change but the mindset and policies do not, we will end up worse off than before,” he said.
Arada Fuangtong, director-general of the Department of Foreign Trade, said technical negotiations with the US on tariffs are ongoing, particularly for rules of origin.
Under US rules, imported raw materials used in Thailand can be counted as local content only if they undergo a substantial transformation, including a change in the Harmonized System code.
In the future, the US may consider using regional value content instead, but the US definition of “region” refers more to an alliance region, meaning certain countries excluded by the US cannot be counted.
She also urged listed companies to make greater use of FTAs Thailand has signed with other countries. There are 930 Thai-listed companies, of which 354 are exporters.
However, only 193 companies utilise FTA privileges across Thailand’s agreements with 18 countries, with the total value of goods using FTA benefits amounting to just US$11 billion.
Soraphol Tulayasathien, senior executive vice-president of the SET, said one reason listed companies make limited use of FTAs may be the complexity of FTA conditions, particularly in calculating rules of origin, as well as the substantial resources required for companies to manage compliance.