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BoT warns of tourism meltdown

BANGKOK: Thailand’s tourism industry will face greater risks next year if the government continues to restrict foreign travellers from entering the country, says the Bank of Thailand.

tourismeconomicsCOVID-19
By Bangkok Post

Tuesday 1 September 2020, 08:46AM


Passengers disembarking a chartered flight from Sydney at Suvarnabhumi airport. Only Thai returnees and foreigners with homes and work permits in Thailand were allowed to board the flight. The passengers are required to quarantine for 14 days. Photo: Arnun Chonmahatrakool / Bangkok Post

Passengers disembarking a chartered flight from Sydney at Suvarnabhumi airport. Only Thai returnees and foreigners with homes and work permits in Thailand were allowed to board the flight. The passengers are required to quarantine for 14 days. Photo: Arnun Chonmahatrakool / Bangkok Post

Foreign arrivals could be downgraded from a projection of 8 million this year and 16mn next year given the deflated tourism outlook, said Don Nakornthab, Senior Director of the Economic and Policy Department, reports the Bangkok Post.

The Tourism and Sports Ministry and the National Economic and Social Development Council already cut their projections for this year’s foreign tourist arrivals to 6.7 million and next year’s to 12mn.

The difference of 1.3mn foreign arrivals this year in projections from the central bank and the two state organisations would result in a 0.5% decline in Thailand’s GDP, said Mr Don.

The loss cannot be computed directly into full-year GDP calculations because there are other economic factors to be considered, he said.

Thailand received no foreign tourist arrivals for the fourth consecutive month in July as international travel restrictions remain in place to safeguard against a second outbreak.

Foreign arrivals to Thailand reached 40mn in 2019, with revenue generated from the tourism industry contributing almost 20% of GDP.

With inbound flight restrictions still in place, the ratio of foreign travellers is expected to shrink by 100% year-on-year between April and December, said Mr Don.

He said the government should consider looking into proper measures to allow foreign travellers to return to stir tourism and economic growth momentum.

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"If foreign travellers still cannot visit the country, this will impact Thailand’s economic growth more severely next year. The government should strike a balance between tourism measures and outbreak containment," said Mr Don.

The central bank also factored in the possibility of a second wave outbreak as other Asian countries have suffered this predicament. New infections of around 20-30 cases per day are acceptable, he said.

The economy continued to improve in July, driven by public spending and the relaxation of lockdown measures both in Thailand and abroad.

Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand from the same period last year, attributed by marked expansion in capital expenditures both from the central government and state-owned enterprises.

Private consumption indicators, merchandise export value and manufacturing production exhibited lighter contractions.

In July, exports contracted by 11.9% year-on-year, lower than a 24.6% contraction in June. Excluding gold exports, Thai shipments fell by 14.3% year-on-year.

Private investment indicators in July contracted 12.8%, higher than 10.2% in the previous month. This reflects fragile confidence among business operators as high economic uncertainty prevails.

The labour market improved somewhat, reflected by a decline in the number of workers registered for a temporary suspension of business, consistent with the recovery in economic activities, but overall employment conditions remain weak.

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Kurt | 03 September 2020 - 08:18:35

Thai tourist authorities at the 'tourist buttons' see tourists not as human, but as walking wallets. A easy way to make money, you not have to do any investment, only cash inn. ( visa, transports, accommodation, tours, restaurants,etc). Often with ripping off 'dual pricing', and regimental dictates. That Thai mind setting must change. They have to learn to treat a tourist as a gues...

Kurt | 03 September 2020 - 08:02:51

Thailand should first let come back foreigners  who are married here, have wife and children., + all the retirees who are now blocked to return to their homes in Thailand. What make to continue to block their return?That will bring in more money/contribution than these few 'medical tourists'. weak in health and probably Covid-19 infected.

Galong | 02 September 2020 - 17:49:36

I'm having second thought about whether Thailand deserves tourist or not.   When everything is going Thailand's way, they rip tourists off every chance they get. When there is a problem like this, they completely forget about tourists. Go ahead, be self-sufficient, I dare you. Try no imports, no exports, and no tourism for a while.

ThorFinger | 02 September 2020 - 00:05:59

Somebody.... anybody... listen!

 

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