Michael Lamonato
Michael@boxofneutrals.com
It was just two weeks ago that this season was being written off as another Mercedes whitewash after Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg dominated the Australian Grand Prix. Red Bull principal Christian Horner went so far as to demand the FIA rein Mercedes in with regulation to precent the sport from atrophying under the weight of the German team’s pace.
But subtle clues as to a shuffling of the form guide were present behind Melbourne’s headline times. They were writ large in Malaysia last weekend.
Was Ferrari’s Mercedes-beating pace genuine? Yes and no — the 2015 Ferrari is quick, thanks to the tidy design directed by technical chief James Allison — but the sweltering conditions in Malaysia undoubtedly helped its cause. Track temperatures at the Sepang circuit reached absurd highs of 64°C more than once, which rewarded any car that used its tyres gently.
Even in Melbourne Ferrari’s long-run pace was eye opening. The F15T had an impressive ability to log fast, consistent laps with minimum wear to its tyres. The benefit of such a design was muted in Australia, where track temperatures were cool enough allow every team to change tyres only once over the course of the race.
Two weeks later in Malaysia, gentle tyre wear was paying dividends — Sebastian Vettel changed tyres only twice and was able to use the delicate but faster ‘medium’ tyre for the majority of the race. Mercedes needed three stops, and was restricted to running the durable but slower ‘hards’.
To say Ferrari’s landmark victory — its first since the 2013 Spanish Grand Prix — was all about the tyres would be unfair, however. The car is a significant step forward on last year’s sluggish entry by way of both chassis and engine improvements, and the team has warned it has a clear and aggressive upgrade schedule that should bring even more performance to the car as soon as next month.
Mercedes, meanwhile, showed vulnerability: it cracked under the pressure of having to strategise a race involving more than just its own two cars, and couldn’t rely on a natural buffer to its competitors to get it out of trouble. The mistake of locking in tyre choices on Friday would normally be masked by superior pace, but Ferrari punished it for its lack of flexibility.
Moreover, glimpses of its radio chatter during the race seemed to show the Mercedes team leaders in disarray — at one point they radioed Rosberg’s instructions to Hamilton. At other times both drivers complained of a lack of information from the team, and Hamilton was heard shouting over the radio for his engineer not to talk to him in the middle of corners.
Can Ferrari bring about another upset in China next weekend? It will be difficult to put in a repeat performance, as team principal Maurizio Arrivabene admitted after the race. Cooler track temperatures will bring the track back into the operating windows of Mercedes, meaning Ferrari will have to work doubly hard to rattle then runaway 2014 world championship team.
One thing is for certain: Mercedes won’t be having 2015 its own way — and with McLaren targeting podiums by the end of the year after a big step forward in performance in Malaysia, and with Williams expecting better pace in less extreme weather, 2014 is shaping up to hit its stride come midseason.
Strap yourselves in, because this season could be poised to become a classic.