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General election

Tuesday 22 February 2011, 03:21AM

Thailand will hold a general election by the middle of this year, the deputy prime minister said last Thursday, setting the stage for a fierce poll battle in the politically divided nation.

"I guarantee that it will happen before June," Suthep Thaugsuban told reporters when asked about the timing of the keenly-awaited vote.

His comments followed the passing of a mid-year budget and recent constitutional amendments, which the government had set as a prerequisite for an early election, along with peaceful conditions for the polls.

Mass protests last April and May by the "Red Shirt" opposition movement -- which was seeking immediate elections - left more than 90 people dead in street clashes between demonstrators and armed soldiers.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said last week an election would be held in the first half of this year if there was no fresh violence.

The British-born, Oxford-educated head of the establishment Democrat Party must call a vote by the end of this year, when his term finishes.

Mr Abhisit defied sceptics last year to survive Thailand's worst political crisis in decades, and many observers expect the Democrats to cling to power for another term, possibly by forming another coalition with smaller partners.


"This government will be re-elected," said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political science professor at Bangkok's Thammasat University.

"Puea Thai (the main opposition party) will get lot of votes but not enough seats to form a government, while the Democrats will gain more votes and will collaborate with its current coalition partners to stay in power."

At the height of the Red Shirt crisis, Abhisit proposed holding a poll in November 2010 to resolve the stand-off, but shelved the plan because demonstrators refused to disperse until the army moved in.

In the months after the military broke up the rally, the capital was rattled by a string of minor explosions while it was under emergency rule.

Somjai said he believed the Red Shirts had been weakened by their failure to achieve their goal last year.

"Some people disagreed with their violent way. The Red Shirts need to adjust their strategy but it will be harder for them because a new election is coming. Violence will continue but will be less severe," he said.

There is also uncertainty about whether the opposition will be able to translate strong support for the Reds, particularly in the rural northeast, into success at the ballot box.

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