Live Phuket The Phuket News Kata Rocks The Phuket News Outrigger Koh Samui Beach Resort
The Phuket News Business News
The Phuket News Phuket | Thailand | World | Business | Q&A | Weird World XML, RSS, Feed
The Phuket News The Phuket News
The Phuket News

Phuket Expat Finance: Brexit – The Aftermath

PHUKET: The recent referendum in Britain, effectively calling for the Union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to leave the European Union, will likely have not just European, but worldwide repercussions for the next few years. The vote divided a nation, and it appears that the same issues that led Brits to lean one way or another are also very real in many other European countries.

economics, politics,


Phuket Expat Finance

Sunday 7 August 2016, 11:00AM


EU Council President Donald Tusk has blamed the rise of Euroscepticism on
EU Council President Donald Tusk has blamed the rise of Euroscepticism on "utopian" dreams of a united Europe. Photo: AFP

But despite the disbelief and mild outrage voiced by EU leaders in the wake of the UK vote to exit the union, other countries seem to be having second thoughts about their own future membership. Populist rumblings within France, Holland, Austria and Hungary are exhibiting exit sympathies, which bodes the question: “What will happen to the EU if they get their own referenda?”

Marine Le Pen, the far right leader of the French National Front, has vowed to do exactly that should she be triumphant in next year’s elections. Geert Wilders, the leader of the Dutch Freedom party has called for the same, and Norbert Hofer – who only lost the Austrian presidential elections by a tiny margin – has also called for a referendum within the next 12 months. And Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, was adamant that “Brussels must hear the voice of the people.”

In total, a future referendum is being discussed in 10 different EU countries, with opposition parties in Portugal, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Slovakia – and even Italy – demanding the right to at least vote on this issue.

It is safe to say that a lot of this discontent started before the Brexit vote. Large inflows of refugees from the war in Syria have unsettled many. In addition, violent attacks – a few directly related to immigrants, but the vast majority being terrorist attacks or attacks by fundamentalists not linked to recent immigrants – have become a far too common occurrence across Europe (211 terrorist attacks in the EU in 2015, and over 1,000 arrests).

The terrible incidents in Belgium on March 22 this year, the spate of gun-related deaths in Germany (most committed by non-Caucasian Germans or refugees) and the deadly attacks in France, which now seem a part of everyday life. It is an all-too-sad reality that such incidents are likely to be repeated.

Germany has other problems, too. Not only is the country suffering deadly attacks on its citizens – which is stoking the same anti-immigrant fervour as the UK’s Brexit voters – but the German taxpayers will most likely end up playing a major part of the shortfall (circa £2.44 billion) which will arise when the UK finally leaves the EU.

It is not clear at this stage exactly what sort of deal Brussels will negotiate with Britain, but the end result will be certainly be an increased EU contribution from Germany. This will go down like a tonne of bricks with the German voting public. German newspapers are hopefully suggesting that Britain should be offered more than just a simple break-away – perhaps some new form of EU partnership deal – anything to insure that Germany picks up as little as possible of the post-Brexit EU tab.

Politics being what it is, and the fact that every European country is a voting democracy, the “should I stay or should I go” debate provides ample ammunition for every opposition party across Europe. Politicians are now co-opting the Brexit result as an excuse to push for their own country’s EU exit strategy, and much like the UK vote, irrespective of whether they really believe in it or not. To certain politicians, it is an opportunity that they simply cannot pass up, especially when crystal clear divisions among their citizens are there for them to exploit.

Most of these countries will almost certainly hold tight to see what the real effect on Britain will be over the next 12 months, or so. It is still too early to tell, but the fate of Britain will undoubtedly play a major part in others’ actions.

On a global scale, the UK has already seen the pound sterling plummet, and there is a strong likelihood the country will experience a slowdown in the property market – many commercial property funds in the UK have already been suspended because they cannot meet the volume of withdrawals. It is also very likely that foreign direct investment (FDI) will stay weak for some time and that jobs in the city and elsewhere will be lost.

To add to the uncertain outlook – with concrete figures – Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman (an American, so he really has no skin in this game) has estimated that Britain will “end up about 2 per cent poorer than it would otherwise be, essentially forever.” And the IMF has already downgraded global GDP growth by 0.1% as a result of the referendum. That’s not the UK growth estimate – that is the impact on the global economy, only as a result of this vote.

For the time being, Europe will remain as it is. The EU and the UK will talk about the future role of Britain at least in a trading bloc with Europe and they are likely to reach some kind of accord before the “Article 50 Button” is pressed. But if tensions bubble over on the continent and another domino falls – in the form of a Nexit, Frexit or Oexit – Mr Krugman and the IMF will almost certainly bring us far more pessimistic forecasts for the future of Europe… and the world.

 

For more information about investing amid the fallout of Brexit, email Phuket Expat Finance at chatwithus@phuketexpatfinance.com

 

 

The Phuket News
The Phuket News
Comment on this story
* Please login to comment. If you do not have an account please register below by simply entering a username, password and email address. You can still leave your comment below at the same time.
Comments Here:
Username:
Password:
E-mail:
CAPTCHA
    Forget your password?

Be the first to comment.

The Phuket News
The Phuket News The Phuket News The Phuket News
The Phuket News
Share this
The Phuket News
Have a news tip-off? Click here
The Phuket News
Related stories
The Phuket News
Phuket community

Recent Comments


Dengue vaccine launched in Phuket

Questions and Answers on Dengue Vaccines: What is the current status of dengue vaccine development? There is a growing public health need for effe...(Read More)


Phuket property prices not just about the beach

Unless your wife and child put their own money in (not money that you gave them), they are nominees, which is illegal. Also, if you have made them sig...(Read More)


All change in Surin as plans for Phuket Rajabhakti Park scrapped

ChristySweet: There are a number of very good foreign architects in Phuket and Thailand. They are not in violation of the FBA code however any drawing...(Read More)


Phuket property prices not just about the beach

Christy: You seem to be confused. My wife does not own the land, my company does. As previously stated i control the shares which is perfectly legal. ...(Read More)


Russian woman, 29, dies 3 days after being hit by motorbike when crossing Phuket road

Look at this Road. There are not even safe sidewalks. How in heaven must people cross.? Locals and Tourists. ZEBRA crossings,do NOT work in Thailand. ...(Read More)


Four arrested, kratom and cash seized during raid on Phuket Town community

Can we finally sit down, and discuss how prohibition of any type (drugs, abortion, etc.) has, literally, NEVER 'worked' efficiently and/or in ...(Read More)


All change in Surin as plans for Phuket Rajabhakti Park scrapped

In principal it sounds like a good idea having a park for the people, which hopefully will be enjoyed by tourists too. The important matter is that o...(Read More)


Phuket property prices not just about the beach

Joe 12 your comments don't do you any favours, Swerv it's taken you a while to understand what everyone is trying to tell you, that is you can...(Read More)


Phuket property prices not just about the beach

Ha ha, Swerv and Joe12 who are always making derogatory comments about others have shown themselves to be clueless once again, this time about Thai la...(Read More)


Barber killed after haircut goes wrong

Kid had the mentality of a cave man. Beating an man to death...for a freeking haircut. This is hopefully the last act this monster performs in publi...(Read More)

The Phuket News
Bangkok Hospital Phuket
PHUKET NEWS
Phuket
Thailand
World
Business
Q A
Weird World
ARCHIVE
POLL
CURRENCY
WEATHER
PHUKET TIDE TABLE
The Phuket News PHUKET LIFE
Phuket Arts
Phuket Community
Phuket Culture
Phuket Dining
Phuket Education
Phuket Entertainment
Phuket Environment
Phuket Health
Phuket People
Phuket Technology
Phuket Travel
Photo Galleries
COLOURING BOOK
The Phuket News PHUKET SPORT
Phuket
Thailand
World
SURF REPORT
PREDICTIONS
The Phuket News PHUKET CLASSIFIEDS
Phuket Buy and Sell
Phuket Jobs
Phuket Property
Phuket Cars and Boats
Phuket Community
Phuket Services
SEARCH CLASSIFIEDS
POST CLASSIFIED
The Phuket News The Phuket News PHUKET EVENTS
Phuket Event listings
Phuket Event calendar
Buy Tickets
POST EVENT
The Phuket News PHUKET DIRECTORY
Phuket Bars, pubs and clubs
Phuket Hotels and villas
Phuket Restaurants
Phuket Yellow Pages
POST LISTING
The Phuket News BARGAINS
The Phuket News ABOUT US
The Company
Distribution points
Subscribe
Advertise with us
Pay for advert
Contact us
CONTESTS
Content Google Map
Site map
Australian Visa Services
 
Currency - The Phuket News   Weather Report - The Phuket News   Surf Report - The Phuket News
LinkedIn - The Phuket News   Twitter - The Phuket News   YouTube - The Phuket News   Facebook - The Phuket News
Copyright © 2017 Class Act Media. All rights reserved. | Website usage terms and conditions | Privacy and Confidentiality Statement.