Asia-Pacific ‘to buy 9,370 aircraft in next 20 years’
According to the latest market forecast by Airbus, airlines in the Asia Pacific region will take delivery of around 9,370 new aircraft over the next 20 years.
Thursday 23 February 2012, 10:58AM
Valued at US$1.3 trillion, the deliveries will account for 34 per cent of all new aircraft, with the region overtaking North America and Europe to become the world’s largest air transport market.
In terms of growth, Airbus expects the number of passengers carried by Asia Pacific region airlines to rise by 5.9 per cent a year, compared with the global average of 4.8 per cent.
In the freight market, the amount of cargo carried by air through the region will increase by 5.6 per cent annually, compared a global increase of around 5.1 per cent.
Meanwhile, airlines in the region will replace 76 per cent of the 4,270 aircraft currently in service, with the overall in-service fleet comprising some 9,965 passenger aircraft and around 820 freighters by 2030.
Reflecting the concentration of growing populations around the main urban centres, Airbus predicts that the Asia Pacific region will continue to lead global demand for wide-body aircraft as the most efficient way to meet rising traffic and overcome capacity constraints at airports.
This, combined with replacement needs, will see carriers in the region acquire around 3,650 new wide-
body aircraft, representing 42 per cent of all wide-body deliveries worldwide.
These will include some 730 very large aircraft, such as the A380, for the busiest routes, and around 2,920 mid-size wide-bodies, such as the A330 and new A350 XWB, for medium-capacity long-range and regional services.
The latest Airbus forecast sees demand for single-aisle aircraft in the region accelerating in the coming years, driven largely by the significant incremental growth in the low-cost sector.This, combined with replacement needs and continued demand on secondary short-haul routes, especially in China and India, will see a requirement for
some 5,720 new single-aisle aircraft in the region.
In the cargo sector, the region will continue to dominate the global market. According to the forecast, the dedicated freighter fleet operated by Asia Pacific airlines will grow from 300 now to around 820 in 2030, representing 30 per cent of the global freighter fleet.
While many of the aircraft will be converted from passenger models, Airbus predicts that around 210 new production freighters will be delivered to the region over the next 20 years.
As in other world regions, around 40 per cent of the freighters will be in 60- to 70-tonne category served by mid-size wide-body aircraft.
“We forecast strong growth for aviation in Asia and the Pacific. Asia Pacific is second to none when it comes to current and future business prospects. And aviation growth will bring increased trade and significant wealth creation into the region,” said John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer, Customers, Airbus.
The Asia Pacific region is a core market for Airbus, accounting for 26 per cent of all orders recorded by the company to date.
Today, there are some 1,800 Airbus aircraft in service with over 80 operators across the region, with another 1,700 on order with customers for future delivery. This represents 38 per cent of the company’s total backlog, reflecting the importance of the region as the fastest-growing market for new civil aircraft.
Airbus’ forecast for the Asia Pacific region is derived from the company’s global market forecast, which foresees total demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freight aircraft valued at US$3.5 trillion over the next 20 years.
In the various size categories the forecast predicts total demand for 1,680 very large aircraft, 6,920 twin-aisle wide-bodies and 19,170 single-aisle aircraft.